2025 season

Model Performance

934 completed predictions

Showing 2025 season performance. 2026 results will take over here once week 3 is complete.
Win accuracyabove 72%
79.8%
of games called correctly
All time pooled 78.0%
ATS record
60.3%
vs 52.4% breakeven
All time pooled 60.0%
Brier scorelower is better
0.143
vs 0.250 naive baseline
All time pooled 0.148
Avg margin error
12.5 pts
mean absolute error in pts
All time pooled 12.5 pts
Brier score by model
2025 season vs all-time pooled — lower is better (0.25 = random guess)
Combined
This season
0.143
934 games
All time pooled
0.148
4546 games
vs 0.25 baseline
43% better
Regular season
This season
0.141
888 games
All time pooled
0.146
4332 games
vs 0.25 baseline
44% better
Postseason / bowls
This season
0.183
46 games
All time pooled
0.182
214 games
vs 0.25 baseline
27% better
Calibration curve
When we say 70%, teams win ~70% of the time
Weekly accuracy — 2025
Win prediction accuracy by week
Model vs Vegas spread
Navy = correct call · Red outline = incorrect · Diagonal = perfect agreement
ATS accuracy by confidence tier
Games split into thirds by model–Vegas disagreement — does bigger edge predict better ATS?
Margin error by predicted spread
A margin error of 11 pts means our predicted score is typically within 11 points of the final. For context, a 7-pt error on a 3-pt spread often still picks the right side.
Predicted vs actual margin
Each dot is one game — tight cluster means good predictions
Season history
SeasonGamesWin accATSBrierMargin errvs baseline
2025✦ current93479.8%60.3%0.14312.5 pts+29.8 pp
202491977.0%59.5%0.14912.2 pts+27.0 pp
202391078.8%59.8%0.14612.3 pts+28.8 pp
202289676.5%60.7%0.15212.5 pts+26.5 pp
202188777.7%59.9%0.15012.8 pts+27.7 pp
Data and methodology

The Margin uses a gradient boosting model trained on 10+ years of college football data, incorporating team efficiency metrics, recruiting talent, coaching history, and situational factors. Predictions refresh weekly as new game results arrive.

CFBD
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All game data, ratings, and statistics are sourced from the College Football Data API — the most comprehensive open-source CFB data available. This model would not exist without their work.

collegefootballdata.com →

Predictions are generated by a proprietary machine learning model for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial or gambling advice. © 2025 The Margin.